Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 11.268319 13.819288 16.669286 20.068399 23.990203 28.351167 33.544372
2026-01-11 7.743303 11.017049 15.090136 20.437552 27.173343 35.273997 45.640726
2026-01-18 5.883479 9.436687 14.246036 21.029119 30.126517 41.673115 57.174435
2026-01-25 4.381161 7.872439 12.980059 20.656800 31.521882 45.945202 66.076767
2026-02-01 3.474434 6.921179 12.322904 20.895272 33.582185 51.047863 76.190953
2026-02-08 2.669762 5.915945 11.368806 20.493972 34.585010 54.651875 84.368215
2026-02-15 2.026979 5.013561 10.393009 19.873280 35.115820 57.518387 91.565415
2026-02-22 1.705854 4.629446 10.207029 20.452119 37.453480 63.055475 102.739220
2026-03-01 1.338631 4.044036 9.551214 20.137830 38.314129 66.399310 110.839832
2026-03-08 1.084877 3.631506 9.138725 20.171850 39.697223 70.555618 120.265604
2026-03-15 0.807951 3.065694 8.312008 19.336287 39.526698 72.249868 126.014464
2026-03-22 0.687523 2.869628 8.217126 19.847525 41.671454 77.669724 137.628082
2026-03-29 0.554643 2.602874 7.952353 20.065019 43.437623 82.769060 149.294539
2026-04-05 0.452726 2.390511 7.776407 20.448461 45.548491 88.575575 162.385791
2026-04-12 0.378488 2.236952 7.709498 21.041320 48.072029 95.171817 176.972970
2026-04-19 0.282826 1.945793 7.225466 20.668904 48.732836 98.629436 186.609360
2026-04-26 0.226223 1.778740 7.032464 20.907492 50.566784 104.160678 199.805173
2026-05-03 0.165728 1.544505 6.589288 20.506007 51.092950 107.411267 209.321386
2026-05-10 0.115819 1.313171 6.087186 19.885027 51.108194 109.728291 217.326038
2026-05-17 0.095880 1.242102 6.075303 20.464135 53.624548 116.637372 233.316604
2026-05-24 0.068556 1.085076 5.730756 20.149700 54.231412 120.077232 243.470375
2026-05-31 0.051246 0.978542 5.531516 20.183736 55.575175 124.918259 256.180669
2026-06-07 0.031938 0.809841 5.038962 19.347784 54.942820 126.014699 262.371654